WHAT SHOULD UNITED STATES' AFGHANISTAN POLICY BE - PART I

Objective:
· To make sure Taliban and Al-Qaeda do not get control of Afghanistan and start their fiefdom all over again;
· To make sure there is a democratically elected govt in Afghanistan which is ally of US and West;
· To make sure Afghanistan stands on its own feet economically with out the poppy crop revenue;
· To make sure Taliban and Al-Qaeda base in Pakistan is dismantled;
· To make sure Pakistan does not play the double game w.r.t Taliban and Al-Qaeda with US;
· To eliminate as many Al-Qaeda and Taliban (especially the bad Taliban; better get rid of any Taliban) as possible;
· To establish a credible, dependable and functional western intel network in the region.

Sub set of objectives:
· To make sure Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is secured from falling in to radical elements’ hands;
· To make sure opium exports from Afghanistan is curtailed to as low volume as possible;
· Pakistan is weaned away from supporting and providing conducive environment for the Islamic radical elements.

Why above objectives are important to US, Western allies:
If Taliban get control of Afghanistan, they could potentially cause damage to western interests by:
· Providing safe refuge to AL- Qaeda to live and expand;
· Sub-contracting offshore attacks to AL- Qaeda;
· Trying to increase sphere of influence – first in the region and then beyond (in ME, South Asia, Asia Pacific);
· Destabilising nearby countries, like, Kyrgyzstan, who are supportive of US and West;
· Creating more and more training grounds for AL- Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan and Pak and other places;
· Systematically trying to nibble more and more area of Pakistan with eventual aim to grab the whole country;
· Increasing opium smuggling to West in menacing proportions;
· Increasing its financial base to make it strong and secure.

Aspects that will be key to success of Af-Pak objectives:
· How far the west's so-called technological advancement can be successfully put in use by US/ISAF;
· How far Pakistan can be made supportive to US/NATO objectives;
· How far Karzai, war lords cooperate and support US/NATO objectives.

Other aspects key for success of Af-Pak objectives:

Military -
· AQ and Taliban need to be taken out;
· Pakistan’s (ISI’s) support to AL-QAEDA and especially to Taliban needs to be cut off totally;
· AL- Qaeda and Taliban’s numbers need to be assessed realistically – region-wise/area-wise

Political -
· Karzai needs to ensure better governance – less corruption, cronyism etc.;
· Karzai needs to put in place proper governance machinery in the whole country;
· The war lords need to be aligned with US/NATO objectives (and support democratically elected govt in Kabul).

Economic -
· Karzai needs to ensure US and international monetary aid trickles down to poor and low middle class
· Democratically elected govt in Kabul needs to provide progress report on utilization of US and international monetary aid;
· Need to create alternative job opportunities (alternative to working on opium fields) and offer jobs to poor people.

Other -
· International sources of funds to AL- Qaeda and Taliban need to be cut off;
· Need to get Europe to commit more resources – troops and money.

WHAT SHOULD UNITED STATES' AFGHANISTAN POLICY BE - Part II

Actions needed to achieve aforesaid objectives:

With Pakistan -
· Adopt tough carrot and stick policy with Pakistani regime;
· Get Pakistan to live without being obsessed with India - provide Pakistan some non-harmful alternative reason to be proud of and be busy with;
· Keep continual pressure and vigilance on ISI – use carrot and stick with key people and buy their support/allegiance;
· Always double-check any so-called key intel, important tactical advice provided by Pak;
· DO NOT BLINDLY TRUST PAKISTAN;
· Seek intel from India and Israel and cross-check Pak’s intel always.

Military tactics -
· Adopt pincer-like movement in cutting off AL- Qaeda /Taliban and taking them out (Pakistan to push from South and US/ISAF pushes from North) in Southern Afghanistan;
· Adopt similar tactics in other areas of Afghanistan;
· Use advanced technology to detect IED’s from distance, intercept messages, locate enemy, blast underground network etc.;
· Use devastating air attacks where civilian casualties are not likely at all;
· Increase troop levels in regions/areas as required.
· Allow some Taliban to escape to China’s Uyghur region, Iran to create trouble there.

Economic -
· Karzai to make sure job opportunities are visibly available and achievable to poor;
· Karzai to make sure small business opportunities are available to masses;
· Keep providing monetary and other aid to Afghanistan.

Set time frame for Karzai -
· Keep pressure on Karzai to develop further Afghanistan’s own security and police base/network in a given time frame (3-5 years)
· Evaluate periodically Karzai’s performance against given KPI’s

Other -
· On a dual track approach explore if some Taliban are willing to join democratic process (but do not get obsessed with finding out good Taliban / bad Taliban);
· Take out/eliminate private fund providers to Taliban (most of them operate in Gulf and ME, some in Europe);
· Keep up an international media blitz that moderate Islamic elements are being courted and radical elements being eliminated;
· Keep an eye on China’s game in region;
· US/NATO to maintain an unified, aligned and integrated approach.
· Do not piss India off.