WHAT SHOULD UNITED STATES' AFGHANISTAN POLICY BE - PART I

Objective:
· To make sure Taliban and Al-Qaeda do not get control of Afghanistan and start their fiefdom all over again;
· To make sure there is a democratically elected govt in Afghanistan which is ally of US and West;
· To make sure Afghanistan stands on its own feet economically with out the poppy crop revenue;
· To make sure Taliban and Al-Qaeda base in Pakistan is dismantled;
· To make sure Pakistan does not play the double game w.r.t Taliban and Al-Qaeda with US;
· To eliminate as many Al-Qaeda and Taliban (especially the bad Taliban; better get rid of any Taliban) as possible;
· To establish a credible, dependable and functional western intel network in the region.

Sub set of objectives:
· To make sure Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is secured from falling in to radical elements’ hands;
· To make sure opium exports from Afghanistan is curtailed to as low volume as possible;
· Pakistan is weaned away from supporting and providing conducive environment for the Islamic radical elements.

Why above objectives are important to US, Western allies:
If Taliban get control of Afghanistan, they could potentially cause damage to western interests by:
· Providing safe refuge to AL- Qaeda to live and expand;
· Sub-contracting offshore attacks to AL- Qaeda;
· Trying to increase sphere of influence – first in the region and then beyond (in ME, South Asia, Asia Pacific);
· Destabilising nearby countries, like, Kyrgyzstan, who are supportive of US and West;
· Creating more and more training grounds for AL- Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan and Pak and other places;
· Systematically trying to nibble more and more area of Pakistan with eventual aim to grab the whole country;
· Increasing opium smuggling to West in menacing proportions;
· Increasing its financial base to make it strong and secure.

Aspects that will be key to success of Af-Pak objectives:
· How far the west's so-called technological advancement can be successfully put in use by US/ISAF;
· How far Pakistan can be made supportive to US/NATO objectives;
· How far Karzai, war lords cooperate and support US/NATO objectives.

Other aspects key for success of Af-Pak objectives:

Military -
· AQ and Taliban need to be taken out;
· Pakistan’s (ISI’s) support to AL-QAEDA and especially to Taliban needs to be cut off totally;
· AL- Qaeda and Taliban’s numbers need to be assessed realistically – region-wise/area-wise

Political -
· Karzai needs to ensure better governance – less corruption, cronyism etc.;
· Karzai needs to put in place proper governance machinery in the whole country;
· The war lords need to be aligned with US/NATO objectives (and support democratically elected govt in Kabul).

Economic -
· Karzai needs to ensure US and international monetary aid trickles down to poor and low middle class
· Democratically elected govt in Kabul needs to provide progress report on utilization of US and international monetary aid;
· Need to create alternative job opportunities (alternative to working on opium fields) and offer jobs to poor people.

Other -
· International sources of funds to AL- Qaeda and Taliban need to be cut off;
· Need to get Europe to commit more resources – troops and money.

WHAT SHOULD UNITED STATES' AFGHANISTAN POLICY BE - Part II

Actions needed to achieve aforesaid objectives:

With Pakistan -
· Adopt tough carrot and stick policy with Pakistani regime;
· Get Pakistan to live without being obsessed with India - provide Pakistan some non-harmful alternative reason to be proud of and be busy with;
· Keep continual pressure and vigilance on ISI – use carrot and stick with key people and buy their support/allegiance;
· Always double-check any so-called key intel, important tactical advice provided by Pak;
· DO NOT BLINDLY TRUST PAKISTAN;
· Seek intel from India and Israel and cross-check Pak’s intel always.

Military tactics -
· Adopt pincer-like movement in cutting off AL- Qaeda /Taliban and taking them out (Pakistan to push from South and US/ISAF pushes from North) in Southern Afghanistan;
· Adopt similar tactics in other areas of Afghanistan;
· Use advanced technology to detect IED’s from distance, intercept messages, locate enemy, blast underground network etc.;
· Use devastating air attacks where civilian casualties are not likely at all;
· Increase troop levels in regions/areas as required.
· Allow some Taliban to escape to China’s Uyghur region, Iran to create trouble there.

Economic -
· Karzai to make sure job opportunities are visibly available and achievable to poor;
· Karzai to make sure small business opportunities are available to masses;
· Keep providing monetary and other aid to Afghanistan.

Set time frame for Karzai -
· Keep pressure on Karzai to develop further Afghanistan’s own security and police base/network in a given time frame (3-5 years)
· Evaluate periodically Karzai’s performance against given KPI’s

Other -
· On a dual track approach explore if some Taliban are willing to join democratic process (but do not get obsessed with finding out good Taliban / bad Taliban);
· Take out/eliminate private fund providers to Taliban (most of them operate in Gulf and ME, some in Europe);
· Keep up an international media blitz that moderate Islamic elements are being courted and radical elements being eliminated;
· Keep an eye on China’s game in region;
· US/NATO to maintain an unified, aligned and integrated approach.
· Do not piss India off.

US PURSUING ITS AF-PAK POLICY CLEVERLY – GETS INDIA TO YIELD TO PAKISTAN

The recent joint statement issued by India and Pakistan, following the meeting between the Prime Ministers of the two nations on the sidelines of NAM Summit at Sharm El-Sheikh seems to indicate that the bickering greedy loser Indians have once again been humbled by the shrewd Pakistanis.

The joint statement sees some departures in both Indian and Pakistani positions in that there is no reference to Jammu and Kashmir in the statement but both countries have agreed to discuss outstanding issues.

There is nothing in non-mention of Kashmir for the Indians to gloat about because Pakistan got a significant victory by getting to include a reference to threats in Balochistan which is an oblique reference to allegations by Pakistan of Indian involvement in the region. This reference on Balochistan will prove very disadvantageous for the Indians in the overall diplomatic duel between the two countries.

Within days of the joint statement K-word got mentioned. As Pakistan wanted, Kashmir was mentioned in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement on reaching India. The fact of the matter is that to make its Af-Pak policy more effective, the US is playing all the necessary political games. And, in this process they are getting the ‘pawns’ to do what they want them to do to suit their tactical moves. From US’s point of view this totally makes sense.

As part of all encompassing diplomatic push there was a statement from Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs Philip J Crowley who said "The meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh and the statement between the Indian leader and the Pakistani leader in terms of cooperation on terrorism (is) vitally important to stability in the region."

But what the common Indian must be thinking is: what did or will India get in return from US by playing ball with it in making Pakistan happy. It is important to note that Pakistan wants to extract some pound of flesh as quid pro quo for acting militarily against the Taliban – Pakistan wants US to pressure India to yield on Kashmir issue permanently.

US wanted to throw some crumbs in Pakistan’s way and they got the Indian suckers to drop their pants to the Pakistanis. US would think that this will help them in pushing the rogue Pakistanis further in their (Pak’s) overt military action against the Taliban. May be it will, may be not, because the schmuck Pakistanis have proven time and again shrewder than the Americans in the Af-Pak geo-political theatre.

If US thought that they can get the Pakistanis to completely crush the Taliban in NWFP and FAP, they would be foolishly mistaken. Pakistan will NEVER EVER destroy the chess piece that gives them THE leverage vis-à-vis USA. When the other day in an interview with CNN correspondent the former ISI chief of Pakistan said that they (Pakistan) can mediate between US and Mullah Omar, it was immediately clear that the rogue Pakistanis had another important card up their sleeve.

Pakistanis know that without their support the US and the ISAF can achieve nothing in Afghanistan and this IS their biggest trump card. And, US with all their vaunted intelligence network and military might will not able to make any friggin’ damage to the Taliban network unless their schmuck bootlicking poodle Pakistan provides necessary support.

Well, to do some ego massage of the ever obliging stupid Indians, Hillary Clinton has visited India first but this visit is just a window dressing. The main substantive portion of the Af-Pak policy will be further pushed by Richard Holbrooke visiting India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Brussels in the week of July 20.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is facing disquiet within his own political party, while the opposition parties in Parliament are tearing him to pieces for the perceived ‘disastrous’ joint statement issued at Sharm El-Sheikh. Singh’s foreign minister S.M. Krishna does not seem to have much clue about how foreign policy games are played. He seems to have merely gone by the strategy paper prepared his Foreign Secretary.

It will be interesting to see how the Af-Pak policy of US pans out in the near and longer term. Hopefully, USA will not be lulled in to believing that Pakistan is cooperating sincerely just because of their military action in Swat valley. Pakistanis can never be trusted - even sons don't believe their fathers - that's Pak history. One hopes US will keep the pressure on the rogue Pakistanis to achieve ultimate success against the Al Qaida and the Taliban.

PRESIDENT OBAMAS FIRST 100 DAYS; AND, DISTURBING SITUATION IN PAKISTAN

PRESIDENT OBAMA COMPLETES 100 DAYS

It had to be someone with massive fortitude, patience and commonsense to confront the issues that enveloped US and the world when the 44th president of US took office. Fortunately, for the world and the US, Barack Obama came to the White House in Jan 2009. He has so far done an outstanding job; if one had to give him a grade, he should be given an A.

President Obama has shown statesmanship, leadership and unifying qualities during first 100 days of his presidency - at both global and national levels. It is shocking to see that certain sections of American society, namely, the ultra-rightists, the conservatives have chosen to be guided by their disgustingly irrational dogma rather than their saner and normal mental faculties.

One wonders how a certain section of TV media in US – Fox News – can get away with the vitriol and divisiveness their media personalities seem to purvey on the channel. Moreover, these apparently mentally atrophied personalities seem to abet, preach and fuel the irrational and psychopathically motivated views alluded to above.

The above cited channel also did not cover the President Obama’s news conference marking completion of his first 100 days in office. Commonsense dictates that the presidential presser was important to the people of US because their President was supposed to be stating his views on various issues of paramount concern to American people.

However, somehow the American people put up quietly with such pathologically malefic behaviour – there is hardly any public outcry, shaming, condemnation, boycott of such systematic campaign which is dangerous for the country. Probably this partly explains the systemic rot that has set in the American society. Probably it also explains why certain white collared diabolical crooks seem to be getting emboldened to design uniquely effective swindling techniques and making fast buck with it.

One hopes President Obama will not get de-motivated by such psychopathic lunatics, and instead will continue to lead US and the world in the right direction. May God bless him and his family!
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PAKISTAN’S DANGEROUS SHENANIGANS

One of the issues that the US President is grappling with is the Afghan-Pak conundrum. Pakistan is right now in the midst of a mind-boggling game of one-upmanship being played between the mentally unstable but power hungry and corrupt Zardari and the Pakistan Army.

It is simply beyond commonsensical comprehension as to why only a small number of Pakistani troops have been sent to Buner area to deal with the Taleban even though Pakistan has a reasonably big army equipped with armaments obtained through begging, borrowing from US and China. Obviously, some very insidious game is being played.

Fortunately, for the first time the US administration is adopting the right way of dealing with Pakistanis. It is also very important that US keeps a close vigil on the nuclear assets of Pakistan and takes all steps necessary to ensure these weapons do not fall in to the hands of Taleban.

If necessary, US military may have to take control of the vital military installations which store the nuclear weapons. For this to be successful, back up support from Canadian, Indian (and possibly Israeli) forces would be essential; hopefully, necessary coordination has been carried out and proper actionable plan has been put in place.

US and its allies have to bring all the intelligence they can bring to the table to make sure they have figured out what games Pakistan’s ISI is playing and whether there are some other forces, like, China and Saudi Arabia acting from behind the scenes.

One also hopes that US has figured out a scenario in which Pakistan’s current geographical entity may have to be allowed to be fragmented in to at least two pieces. One autonomous strip consisting of the NWFP, the pro-Taleban regions, and the other consisting of Punjab, Sindh and Multan. In such a scenario, the strip consisting of NWFP, Swat, Dir etc can be systematically squeezed from north and bottom.

At any rate, Pak-Afghan scene needs close monitoring and quick action as and when needed. When and how much help Pakistan needs to be given should be decided by Obama administration based on verified ground realities instead of sentimental pronouncements emanating from some US congressperson – not least of someone as naïve and incompetent as John Kerry.

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S AFGHANISTAN POLICY AND THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT - ISI

In his first primetime press conference on 09 Feb when US President Obama didn’t mention the word ‘Taliban’ while responding to a question on his administration’s Afghanistan policy, it was clear something was cooking. The omission of the word ‘Taliban’ came as a bit of a surprise because till this presser whenever President Obama spoke about threats to US from Afghan-Pakistan area, he always mentioned Al-Qaeda and Taliban in the same breath.

Be that as it may, it is now clear that US does not wish to look at Taliban through one coloured lens – US wishes to distinguish between ‘good’ Taliban and ‘bad’ Taliban. Ostensibly, the motivation for this thinking comes from supposed success in Iraq where some Sunni elements hostile towards US apparently switched sides and started working with the coalition forces in fighting insurgency.

Clearly, US is trying to devise a strategy for Afghanistan which will prevent it from getting bogged down in that area in Vietnam-like manner. Hopefully, lessons learned from Vietnam are apparently being applied to make sure that US doesn’t have to leave Afghan theatre with a bloody nose, mutilated prestige and negative gain on the ledger.

Extending the logic of success in Iraq to Afghanistan is conceptually tenable. But what about translating that in to reality? Are the scenarios identical? What are the additional challenges? Surely, US strategists must have carried out necessary SWOT and other analyses – one hopes they did so! Incidentally, one had hoped that US had done necessary home work about post-Saddam scenario in Iraq also but sadly that proved to be so hopelessly untrue!

Anyway, it seems that US thinks that Taliban being a Sunni outfit will be amenable more or less in the same way as the Iraqi Sunni elements turned out to be. As well, the American policy makers are hoping that there will be support from Pakistan in making the new policy initiative successful. It seems that Afghan President Hamid Karzai is also in favour of this vector of new US Afghan policy.

But here is the fly in the ointment – Pakistan – and this could be potentially serious. Why? Because, Pakistan (through ISI) was a co-sponsor of Taliban when Soviets had occupied Afghanistan. But after the Soviets withdrew from that region, Pakistan (through ISI) continued to keep Taliban alive because it served them in more than one way.

By keeping Taliban alive and active, Pakistan’s dangerously shrewd and mean SOB's in politics and in ISI could continue to have foothold in Afghanistan, devilishly prise out American aid, keep fingering India, and last but not the least hold on to their positions of power.

Just to provide brief historical context, Pakistan’s former dictators Zial-ul-Haq and Pervez Musharraf were America’s darlings because they were so good in licking the boots of their American masters and also convincing them that US interests in the region are safe with them (Zia or Musharraf). Taliban was a good pawn in this political chess game Pakistan played for last so many years vis-à-vis US.

Washington probably understood how the mean schmuck Pakistanis (including ISI) were pulling wool over US eyes but the Americans chose to ignore (if they didn’t understand the Pakistani game, then God bless them!). Anyway, after 9/11 things changed, albeit very slowly, in Washington. During his second term President Bush started realising there was more benefit in cooperating with India (e.g. civil nuclear cooperation).

In order to win India’s confidence US started to acknowledge, more in private though, the dangers posed by ISI's support to Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Slowly, US started to acknowledge in public also the areas where Musharraf had to do more with regard to Pakistan's support to Taliban and Islamic insurgents than his usual theatricals.

But the 26/11 Mumbai attack completely changed everything. This attack reinforced the fact that Pakistan was indeed the epicentre of Islamic terrorism, and was playing double game with US with regard to Taliban and even Al-Qaeda. The reported killing of American intelligence operatives, and the Jews in the Mumbai attack forced the Americans to take serious note of Pakistan’s dubious role in the whole game.

Consequently, the Americans are infuriated, rightly so, and they want to get down to the bottom of the sinister plot. So are the Israelis, and given their unfettered clout in Washington they are kicking their American counterparts to punish the perpetrators. Both US and Israelis know the diabolical role of ISI in all this.

US probably is aware that Pakistan hates President Karzai and Pakistan will do everything possible to destabilise him. Taliban is one of the instruments Pakistan uses to play its dirty game against Karzai and anybody and everybody who support Karzai – including the American troops and ISAF. Pakistan plays this sinister game through ISI. No wonder American troops and ISAF are finding their task in containing Taliban getting difficult by the day.

Ultimately, Americans are now realising that it is about time they wielded the hobnailed boot with Pakistan and some how brought a stop to ISI’s support to Taliban. US knows (so does Canada and other constituents of ISAF) that unless ISI is disciplined and Pakistan stops providing safe haven to Taliban and Al-Qaeda elements in FAR and NWFP, chances of gaining any upper hand against the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is next to impossible.

US Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, eventually couldn’t be more candid about ISI. In an interview with PBS broadcast recently he said that (Pakistan Army Chief and de-facto boss of ISI) Kayani "certainly is aware of the concerns that I have with respect to his intelligence agency, ISI".

"They (ISI) have been very attached to many of these extremist organizations," Mullen said warning that "in the long run, they have got to completely cut ties with those in order to really move in the right direction". Kayani, he said, had appointed in Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha, "one of his best guys", as the new director of ISI. "I'm encouraged with his views and I'm encouraged with how he sees the problem." But "it's going to take some time to get at it inside ISI".

So, in summary, the new US Afghan policy of engaging with ‘good’ Taliban may not bear any fruit whatsoever unless and until the chief actor of the dangerous Islamic insurgency game – Pakistan and ISI – is properly corralled and contained. US should learn from history (their strategists have a bad habit of not reading history) that elements in modern day Pakistan and the Afghan-Pak border areas could be contained only through sledge hammer policy (refer to early 20th century Sikh ruler Maharaja Ranjit Singh and his general Hari Singh Nalwa’s tactics in the region).

One hopes President Obama and his advisors will learn from history and move forward carefully with force (and some carrots) without getting fooled by Pakistani chicanery. Only if they can do so, they will be able to minimise losses to American troops and ISAF and at the same time achieve their objective of containing Islamic insurgency threat to USA and other western countries. And while doing so for God’s sake US should not get blindsided and/or misguided by agenda-driven advice from the wily British. USA has for so long been deceived and misguided by British advice on South Asian matters. It is time US used its own brain while developing strategies for the Afghan-Pakistan theatre.

MUMBAI KIILINGS, AND POTENTIAL DANGERS POSED FOR USA - PAKISTAN PLAYING NEW GAMES

As per a news item posted on a US cable news website, a new intelligence assessment obtained by The Associated Press states that "The terrorism threat to the United States over the next five years will be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa, persistent challenges to border security and increasing Internet savvy." The assessment further states "The al-Qaida terrorist network continues to focus on U.S. attack targets vulnerable to massive economic losses, casualties and political turmoil''.

US Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said in his year-end address on Dec. 18 "The threat of terrorism and the threat of extremist ideologies has not abated. This threat has not evaporated, and we can't turn the page on it."

As per the news item referred to above, intelligence officials predict the pool of radical Islamists within the U.S. will increase over the next five years due partly to the ease of online recruiting means. Officials foresee "a wave of young, self-identified Muslim 'terrorist wannabes' who aspire to carry out violent acts."

Wait a sec, where does the aforementioned fit in the killings carried out in Indian city of Mumbai on Nov 26? Good question! Here is the answer: After hours of interrogation of the lone Pakistani terrorist captured alive by Indian authorities, the FBI (and probably CIA/NSA), British and Israeli Intelligence have found out for themselves that the Mumbai killings was planned and launched from Pakistan.

Now the curve ball! The people who were killed in Taj Hotel included 2-3 US intelligence operatives (as per media reports but obviously US won't deny or confirm it). What is disturbing for US intelligence is how did the Pakistani terrorists, who carried out the operation on Nov 26, know about the presence of the said US operatives. It was no mere coincidence that the attack took place on Nov 26 and that the terrorists came to Taj Hotel looking for people who held US and British passports.

Consider the following relevant aspects: If the news about presence of the said US operatives in Mumbai was not supposed to be known to any other country, then how come the Pakistani militants came to know about them. Does it mean there is a Pakistani mole in US system? Now, the flip side - if per chance the Pakistani agency (ISI) had some inkling about the said US operatives' presence (for some purported coordination amongst US-ISI), then obviously the information flowed to the Pakistani terrorists from ISI.

Both the above scenarios are frightening and worrisome from US point of view. All these years US was in a state of self-inflicted denial that there was no worry for US from Pakistani terrorism mainly targeted against India. But now it is clear to even the dumbest of the dumb that Pakistan was and is the staging base for deadliest of the terrorist operations, and these operations have potential ramifications that threaten US interests - inside and outside US.

To make matters worse, the terrorist outfits, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al-Qaida and Taliban get logistical and intel support from certain factions of Pakistani intelligence (ISI). The logistical and technical support provided by these factions of ISI includes recruiting, networking, and making suitably trained resources available to the terrorist units for their covert and/or overt operations on ground or in cyberspace.

Make no mistake, the anti-US elements in Middle-East may be simmering with anger and may be willing to wreak vengeance against US, but they lack the sophisticated capability and savvy to carry out any deadly attack inside US or against US targets outside US. Get this in your heads - if there is any deadly attack inside US or against US targets outside US in the coming years, or if any such operation is thwarted in the planning stages, the epicentre of the same will get traced to Pakistan (and its border areas with Afghanistan which, again, receives support from ISI).

It needs to be mentioned here that Taliban has announced that should India chose to launch any military action against Pakistan, it (Taliban) will be fighting alongside Pakistani troops. Whatever veil of separation was there, if any, about the umbilical link between Pakistan and Taliban, gets completely shredded by this announcement.

Counter-terrorism experts fear that Pakistan (through one of its surrogates) may have already passed on the dirty bomb technology to some terrorist outfit. News items, like, 'Disgraced Pak scientist Dr. Khan tried to sell nuclear technology to foreign elements' are meant to deflect international attention from Pakistan to something obscure and non-existent. Unfortunately, the western world deliberately allowed itself to be fooled by such red herrings.

But time is now up for US and its western allies to play idiot and live in state of denial about Pakistan's deadly machinations - these machinations encompass not only India but more importantly the western countries whose boots the Pakistani leadership chose to lick but only to fool them and further its (Pakistan's) own interests.

The only way to thwart the deadly machinations (againat US and its allies), which invariably are supported directly/indirectly by Pakistan's ISI, is to have comprehensive intel coordination amongst western allies (including Israel), and to carry out devastating surgical pre-emptive operations against the nefarious elements within Pakistan.

If US and its western allies trust and depend on Pakistan to root out elements inimical to western powers, then it will be their monumental foolishness. One hopes the new US administration will not be fooled by chicanery, dubiousness and manipulated lies of Pakistan.

If US has to protect its citizens from potential deadly terrorist attacks in future, it will have to bring itself around to stare the 'real' epicentre of terrorism planning (i.e. Pakistan) in its face and stamp it out. The notion that US is thousand of miles away from Pakistan/Afghanistan and hence it is safe is as nonsensical as it can be. Hope numbskulls and delusional fools will not be occupying the key policy making positions in US come 2009!

PAKISTAN - THE MAIN SOURCE OF ISLAMIC TERRORISTS - NEEDS TO BE KICKED HARD TO COOPERATE MEANINGFULLY!

The recent terrorist attacks in Indian city of Mumbai has clearly brought out that Islamic terrorists not only find safe haven in Pakistan, they are also being trained and deployed by Pakistan's ISI. This has been put beyond any shade of doubt by Ajmal Amir Kasab, the lone captured terrorist in Mumbai.

This terrorist has written a three-page letter to the Pakistani High Commission, stating that as a citizen he was entitled to seek legal help from his own country to fight his case in Indian courts. The document finally settles the debate about the origins of Kasab and his fellow terrorists, and also establishes that the Mumbai attack was planned and launched from Pakistani soil.

US is rightly worried about threats to its own citizens from such attacks, Why? Because, these terrorist acts are supported and abetted by ISI - Pakistan's intelligence agency. This is the same agency which helped, in concert with CIA, in creating and training Taleban to fight the Russians during their occupation of Afghanistan.

It is no secret that ISI has factions which still sympathises with Taleban, Al-Qaida and the Islamic terrorists. One of the main reasons why US and NATO forces have not been successful to that extent in Afghanistan, and there is resurgence of insurgency is because the Taleban supporting faction of ISI provides necessary intel and logistics to the adversaries of US/NATO forces.

The reason for American worry is that the pro-Taleban faction of ISI may be covertly supporting some Taleban operation to strike within US. There seems to be some warnings already to this effect. One may ask, why this faction of ISI would support such an act to take place in US? The answer is simple: As long as the Al-Qaida remains alive, ISI would continue to have some leverage with US. Musharraf used this leverage very effectively for his survival.

ISI virtually acts as an autonomous organisation reporting only to the Army chief of Pakistan. This agency is rarely in control of democratically elected Prime Minister or President of Pakistan. Former President Musharraf could control ISI by virtue of having the Army Chief's post at the same time.

Also, the continuance of Taleban and Al-Qaida assures unmitigated flow of funds for ISI, these funds are used by ISI bosses to amass their personal wealth and also to carry out it covert operations in various countries, including India. These covert operations are used by ISI bosses as bargaining cards vis-a-vis their political masters for furthering their own careers.

However, whenever Pakistan is asked to cooperate in actions meant to take out the Taleban/Al-Qaida, it enthusiastically responds but only through glib verbiage. But what happens on ground actually depends on what the controlling factions of ISI decide to do. Generally, the action on ground is just a sham to show to the American masters that Pakistan is cooperating.

Moreover, Pakistan is also the breeding ground of new terrorists - they are created in the hundreds of madrassahs operating in that country. These institutions are providing a steady supply of half-mad radical Muslims ready to die for any 'jihad'. They just need to be brainwashed as the captured terrorist in Mumbai calls it "I was misled, Lashkar's devils ensnared me." (Lashkar is a terrorist outfit supported by ISI).

These madrassahs produce jihadis with newer ideas to operate, the recent one being termed as 'asymmetric tactics'. This tactics was in evidence in the killing of 3 British soldiers in Afghanistan by a 13-year old suicide bomber.

If US, Britain and other west European powers want to be safe from potential Islamic terrorist attacks, they will need to kick the ISI real hard to make it kneel and cooperate in fighting Islamic terrorism. The kicking needs to be done literally using the booted foot, and in the form of most uninhibited tongue lashing through to turning the screws militarily and economically.

Pakistan cooperates best when it is kicked with hobnailed boots. History testifies to this. Maharaja Ranjit Singh and his commander-in-chief Hari Singh Nalwa used this philosophy to subjugate and stamp out any potential opposition from the then areas of what constitutes today's Pakistan and Afghanistan (including the border areas between the two countries). It appears this truth has finally dawned on Bush administration but only too late.

As well, it seems President-elect Obama knows a bit of the history, that's why he did tough talking saying "we will stamp out any attempt to repeat Mumbai-like killings." May be he knows the Pakistanis better than the previous American presidents.

So, in summary if US and its western allies want to see an end to the Islamic terrorism in the world, they got to kick Pakistan in to submission and force it to cooperate in real sense in war against terror. But if US continues to allow itself to get fooled by sweet-worded assurances of Pakistani leadership and the ISI, there will be more American blood to be shed - whether in Afghanistan or on the US soil itself. One hopes this will not happen because US would have seen through by now the Pakistani sham and its habit of lying shamelessly.