“Job losses surprise Tories”, screamed a headline from a Calgary’s newspaper on 8th August 2009. The news went on to state that since the economic downturn struck in October 2008, Alberta's jobless rate has climbed month after month, nearly doubling to 7.2 per cent in July 2009 (highest since June 1996) with the evaporation of 75,600 positions.
In Edmonton, the unemployment rate was 7.0 per cent in July, compared with 6.5 per cent in June. Calgary's rate increased to 6.9 per cent from 6.6 per cent. The figures are based on three-month moving averages. Meanwhile, the number of people failing to make payments on their debt jumped more in Calgary than any other Canadian city, according to Equifax Canada.
First, due to the incompetence and blunders of oilsands companies the Canada educated young engineers suffered when the projects got shelved, and then due to the combined effect of incompetence of recruiters and myopic view of employer companies, the aforementioned junior engineers are getting a raw deal.
Someone not familiar with Canada and in particular Alberta would wonder why this calamity befell Albertans. For them and others, here is a quick recap: During 2006-07, a number of oilsands companies launched highly ambitious plans for development of the vast hydrocarbon resource – called oilsands – that abounds Alberta.
It must be said that except Imperial Oil the top management of these oilsands companies made investment decisions in a stupid manner without doing commonsensical due diligence regarding risks to their long term investment plans. Like a bum high on pot, these numbskulls thought in their fool’s paradise that oil prices will remain high and their projects will have attractive IRR’s.
Due to the mega projects arising out of financially foolish decisions of these various oilsands corporations, the engineering companies in Alberta filled positions with people like crazy – a lot of these positions were filled by new immigrants who came in droves to join the gold rush.
However, in mid-2008 came the cataclysmic downturn stemming from greed filled devious financial products sold in US. The disaster that started in US caused a global meltdown which, among other things, brought a precipitous fall of oil prices from >US$120 to less than US$40.
This dealt a huge blow to the not well thought out ambitious oilsands projects alluded to above. Except Imperial Oil's projects, other projects started to get shut down or moth balled one after another from late 2008. Consequently, the engineering companies in Alberta started laying off people in hundreds.
In this massive layoffs the young engineers who did their undergraduate degree from Canadian universities are the worst affected. However, as the oilsands companies – small to big – reconciled to reality in Q2/Q3 2009 and started to develop new projects in slow and cautious manner, some laid off engineers started to get job offers.
But the job offers are very few and far between for engineers having 2-3 years experience in oilsands projects. These bright Canadian universities educated engineers are getting shunned by the myopic, dim witted and foolish attitude of both engineering and oilsands companies.
The aforesaid companies want engineers with 5-7 years or more oilsands’ experience. Since there is this racket in Alberta and Canada of hiring of people through recruitment companies, the young, dynamic Canada educated engineers are getting filtered out at the hand of the robotic recruiters.
These twits are just looking at numbers (of experience) rather than the core competency of the candidates who may have relatively less experience. The important aspect that is getting overlooked is that these young engineers cut their teeth in oilsands rather than drifting from some other oil and gas experience and that too from other countries.
Moreover, because of their Canadian engineering education these junior engineers have an edge over the so-called 5-10 years experienced jokers coming from outside Canada a large number of whom can’t even speak English properly.
Most of the recruiters don’t have necessary competence to discern whether a so-called 5-6 years experienced engineer, who may have done his Bachelors from some other country’s very pedestrian level university, has got necessary oilsands experience, or, is s/he bluffing her/his way through by camouflaging their experience under the façade of years of experience.
The poor young engineers who started their career in oilsands after completing their undergraduate course from Canadian schools are getting edged out at the very screening level at the hands of lousy recruiters, and second-rate interviewers of employer companies.
The question is: who will crack the whip to instil some sense in the minds of the employer companies to provide employment opportunities to the bright, Canada educated young engineers rather than opting for some foreign educated clown who has neither the communication skills nor the familiarity with the Canadian way.
It is so disgusting and painful to see the young, bright, capable (but less in so-called years of experience) Canada educated engineers suffering, for no fault of theirs, due to callousness, inadequacy, incapability of people charged with hiring processes. Probably only God’s intervention can bring some relief to these struggling young folks! Amen!
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Saturday, July 18, 2009
US PURSUING ITS AF-PAK POLICY CLEVERLY – GETS INDIA TO YIELD TO PAKISTAN
The recent joint statement issued by India and Pakistan, following the meeting between the Prime Ministers of the two nations on the sidelines of NAM Summit at Sharm El-Sheikh seems to indicate that the bickering greedy loser Indians have once again been humbled by the shrewd Pakistanis.
The joint statement sees some departures in both Indian and Pakistani positions in that there is no reference to Jammu and Kashmir in the statement but both countries have agreed to discuss outstanding issues.
There is nothing in non-mention of Kashmir for the Indians to gloat about because Pakistan got a significant victory by getting to include a reference to threats in Balochistan which is an oblique reference to allegations by Pakistan of Indian involvement in the region. This reference on Balochistan will prove very disadvantageous for the Indians in the overall diplomatic duel between the two countries.
Within days of the joint statement K-word got mentioned. As Pakistan wanted, Kashmir was mentioned in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement on reaching India. The fact of the matter is that to make its Af-Pak policy more effective, the US is playing all the necessary political games. And, in this process they are getting the ‘pawns’ to do what they want them to do to suit their tactical moves. From US’s point of view this totally makes sense.
As part of all encompassing diplomatic push there was a statement from Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs Philip J Crowley who said "The meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh and the statement between the Indian leader and the Pakistani leader in terms of cooperation on terrorism (is) vitally important to stability in the region."
But what the common Indian must be thinking is: what did or will India get in return from US by playing ball with it in making Pakistan happy. It is important to note that Pakistan wants to extract some pound of flesh as quid pro quo for acting militarily against the Taliban – Pakistan wants US to pressure India to yield on Kashmir issue permanently.
US wanted to throw some crumbs in Pakistan’s way and they got the Indian suckers to drop their pants to the Pakistanis. US would think that this will help them in pushing the rogue Pakistanis further in their (Pak’s) overt military action against the Taliban. May be it will, may be not, because the schmuck Pakistanis have proven time and again shrewder than the Americans in the Af-Pak geo-political theatre.
The joint statement sees some departures in both Indian and Pakistani positions in that there is no reference to Jammu and Kashmir in the statement but both countries have agreed to discuss outstanding issues.
There is nothing in non-mention of Kashmir for the Indians to gloat about because Pakistan got a significant victory by getting to include a reference to threats in Balochistan which is an oblique reference to allegations by Pakistan of Indian involvement in the region. This reference on Balochistan will prove very disadvantageous for the Indians in the overall diplomatic duel between the two countries.
Within days of the joint statement K-word got mentioned. As Pakistan wanted, Kashmir was mentioned in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement on reaching India. The fact of the matter is that to make its Af-Pak policy more effective, the US is playing all the necessary political games. And, in this process they are getting the ‘pawns’ to do what they want them to do to suit their tactical moves. From US’s point of view this totally makes sense.
As part of all encompassing diplomatic push there was a statement from Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs Philip J Crowley who said "The meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh and the statement between the Indian leader and the Pakistani leader in terms of cooperation on terrorism (is) vitally important to stability in the region."
But what the common Indian must be thinking is: what did or will India get in return from US by playing ball with it in making Pakistan happy. It is important to note that Pakistan wants to extract some pound of flesh as quid pro quo for acting militarily against the Taliban – Pakistan wants US to pressure India to yield on Kashmir issue permanently.
US wanted to throw some crumbs in Pakistan’s way and they got the Indian suckers to drop their pants to the Pakistanis. US would think that this will help them in pushing the rogue Pakistanis further in their (Pak’s) overt military action against the Taliban. May be it will, may be not, because the schmuck Pakistanis have proven time and again shrewder than the Americans in the Af-Pak geo-political theatre.
If US thought that they can get the Pakistanis to completely crush the Taliban in NWFP and FAP, they would be foolishly mistaken. Pakistan will NEVER EVER destroy the chess piece that gives them THE leverage vis-à-vis USA. When the other day in an interview with CNN correspondent the former ISI chief of Pakistan said that they (Pakistan) can mediate between US and Mullah Omar, it was immediately clear that the rogue Pakistanis had another important card up their sleeve.
Pakistanis know that without their support the US and the ISAF can achieve nothing in Afghanistan and this IS their biggest trump card. And, US with all their vaunted intelligence network and military might will not able to make any friggin’ damage to the Taliban network unless their schmuck bootlicking poodle Pakistan provides necessary support.
Well, to do some ego massage of the ever obliging stupid Indians, Hillary Clinton has visited India first but this visit is just a window dressing. The main substantive portion of the Af-Pak policy will be further pushed by Richard Holbrooke visiting India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Brussels in the week of July 20.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is facing disquiet within his own political party, while the opposition parties in Parliament are tearing him to pieces for the perceived ‘disastrous’ joint statement issued at Sharm El-Sheikh. Singh’s foreign minister S.M. Krishna does not seem to have much clue about how foreign policy games are played. He seems to have merely gone by the strategy paper prepared his Foreign Secretary.
It will be interesting to see how the Af-Pak policy of US pans out in the near and longer term. Hopefully, USA will not be lulled in to believing that Pakistan is cooperating sincerely just because of their military action in Swat valley. Pakistanis can never be trusted - even sons don't believe their fathers - that's Pak history. One hopes US will keep the pressure on the rogue Pakistanis to achieve ultimate success against the Al Qaida and the Taliban.
Pakistanis know that without their support the US and the ISAF can achieve nothing in Afghanistan and this IS their biggest trump card. And, US with all their vaunted intelligence network and military might will not able to make any friggin’ damage to the Taliban network unless their schmuck bootlicking poodle Pakistan provides necessary support.
Well, to do some ego massage of the ever obliging stupid Indians, Hillary Clinton has visited India first but this visit is just a window dressing. The main substantive portion of the Af-Pak policy will be further pushed by Richard Holbrooke visiting India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Brussels in the week of July 20.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is facing disquiet within his own political party, while the opposition parties in Parliament are tearing him to pieces for the perceived ‘disastrous’ joint statement issued at Sharm El-Sheikh. Singh’s foreign minister S.M. Krishna does not seem to have much clue about how foreign policy games are played. He seems to have merely gone by the strategy paper prepared his Foreign Secretary.
It will be interesting to see how the Af-Pak policy of US pans out in the near and longer term. Hopefully, USA will not be lulled in to believing that Pakistan is cooperating sincerely just because of their military action in Swat valley. Pakistanis can never be trusted - even sons don't believe their fathers - that's Pak history. One hopes US will keep the pressure on the rogue Pakistanis to achieve ultimate success against the Al Qaida and the Taliban.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
DUMB SCHMUCK REPUBLICANS AND RIGHT WING MEDIA WANT UNITED STATES AND OBAMA TO SCREW UP IRAN POLICY
Iran is at the threshold of a momentous change. Presently a tussle is going on in that country which could turn out to be decisive in the modern history of Iran. In this tussle on one side are psychopathic Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and his master Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and on the other side are defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and his supporters.
The intellectually challenged Republicans, who neither had any idea of what art of diplomacy is nor have any idea now, want President Obama to jump in the Iranian fray. The saying ‘a fool’s bolt is soon shot’ couldn’t be more true in case of these numb-skull Republicans who think that the whole world is their fiefdom and the US can be a gun-toting policeman who can walk in to any country and meddle in its internal affairs.
But the right wing media who may be deeply intellectually impoverished are not so impoverished or idiot not to know the consequences of blatant interference in any other country’s internal affairs. Still they would like President Obama to commit a gaffe and make a mess of Iran issue.
There is another saying ‘to cut one’s nose to spite one’s face’ – this saying seems applicable to the attempts the scheming schmuck right wing media is making to build a hype on their channels that US should overtly step in to Iranian affair right away. They know that it would be a folly to do so, but then who cares of national interest when personal grudges reign supreme.
One could see the above mentioned nefarious strategy on a well known global news channel the other day. The anchor, who has clearly not yet been able to stomach Democrats ascendancy at Capitol Hill and White House, tried his best to put words in the mouth of an expert on Iran to extract some statement, like, US should overtly interfere in Iran’s affairs. The said anchor looked clearly disappointed when the expert didn’t fall for the bait.
President Obama knows the dirty tricks of these people who place personal defeats – political or idealogical – above the interest of the country. Obama has handled the Iran issue very astutely so far. However, he needs to be on guard against any knee-jerk action to counter the Republican pressure which is being purveyed by the likes of the television anchor mentioned in the foregoing.
A sidebar comment: No wonder Obama made the aforesaid tv anchor butt of his joke at RTCA gathering held in June. This anchor, who seems to have come up to this level in life more by stroke of luck and literally sucking up to right benefactors rather than his genius, probably thinks he can sustain at that level by licking the boots of his patrons, never mind even if they are downright rogues and/or stupid in regard to their approach to what is basically good for US and what is not.
Anyway, it is heartening to see that the current president of US has treaded on the Iran affairs very appropriately. Overt meddling may not be called for at this stage; in fact, the western world, supported by Israel, could provide all the help and succour the Mousavi supporters need in disseminating the information from Iran to the outside world – be it pictures, recordings, written material, whatever.
The world needs to provide all and every help to the Iranians who want freedom from repression of the clerics who are insanely living in the medieval ages and are given to savage like behaviour and temperament. Every modern gadgetry and means that can provide some assistance towards realizing the aspirations of those Iranians must be made available by the western world.
Right now concerted covert operations duly supported by measured overt diplomatic game must be the order of the day. That being said, there also needs to be a readiness in terms of gun boat diplomacy, just in case. The US military is stretched in terms of ground forces, but the naval and air force wherewithal should be adequate to put the irrational savage clerics on the defensive. US must rally its allies to support the cause of the democracy loving citizens of Iran.
The Iranian society is now polarized between saner and fanatical elements. Now is the time to drive the wedge harder to let the saner elements win. But in the process of accomplishing this, the US and its allies should avoid falling in the trap being attempted to be set by the disgraced, vanquished and self-seeking political opponents (and their lackeys) of Obama and the Democrats.
If the western world can play its cards properly, surely the Iranian society could be freed from the tyrannical and repressive elements of that country. Quite often a cool and methodical approach works better than shoot-from-the hip approach. The modern world is not the Wild West of 19th century United States – it is now an internet and satellite driven world of the mentally sharp and balanced!!
The intellectually challenged Republicans, who neither had any idea of what art of diplomacy is nor have any idea now, want President Obama to jump in the Iranian fray. The saying ‘a fool’s bolt is soon shot’ couldn’t be more true in case of these numb-skull Republicans who think that the whole world is their fiefdom and the US can be a gun-toting policeman who can walk in to any country and meddle in its internal affairs.
But the right wing media who may be deeply intellectually impoverished are not so impoverished or idiot not to know the consequences of blatant interference in any other country’s internal affairs. Still they would like President Obama to commit a gaffe and make a mess of Iran issue.
There is another saying ‘to cut one’s nose to spite one’s face’ – this saying seems applicable to the attempts the scheming schmuck right wing media is making to build a hype on their channels that US should overtly step in to Iranian affair right away. They know that it would be a folly to do so, but then who cares of national interest when personal grudges reign supreme.
One could see the above mentioned nefarious strategy on a well known global news channel the other day. The anchor, who has clearly not yet been able to stomach Democrats ascendancy at Capitol Hill and White House, tried his best to put words in the mouth of an expert on Iran to extract some statement, like, US should overtly interfere in Iran’s affairs. The said anchor looked clearly disappointed when the expert didn’t fall for the bait.
President Obama knows the dirty tricks of these people who place personal defeats – political or idealogical – above the interest of the country. Obama has handled the Iran issue very astutely so far. However, he needs to be on guard against any knee-jerk action to counter the Republican pressure which is being purveyed by the likes of the television anchor mentioned in the foregoing.
A sidebar comment: No wonder Obama made the aforesaid tv anchor butt of his joke at RTCA gathering held in June. This anchor, who seems to have come up to this level in life more by stroke of luck and literally sucking up to right benefactors rather than his genius, probably thinks he can sustain at that level by licking the boots of his patrons, never mind even if they are downright rogues and/or stupid in regard to their approach to what is basically good for US and what is not.
Anyway, it is heartening to see that the current president of US has treaded on the Iran affairs very appropriately. Overt meddling may not be called for at this stage; in fact, the western world, supported by Israel, could provide all the help and succour the Mousavi supporters need in disseminating the information from Iran to the outside world – be it pictures, recordings, written material, whatever.
The world needs to provide all and every help to the Iranians who want freedom from repression of the clerics who are insanely living in the medieval ages and are given to savage like behaviour and temperament. Every modern gadgetry and means that can provide some assistance towards realizing the aspirations of those Iranians must be made available by the western world.
Right now concerted covert operations duly supported by measured overt diplomatic game must be the order of the day. That being said, there also needs to be a readiness in terms of gun boat diplomacy, just in case. The US military is stretched in terms of ground forces, but the naval and air force wherewithal should be adequate to put the irrational savage clerics on the defensive. US must rally its allies to support the cause of the democracy loving citizens of Iran.
The Iranian society is now polarized between saner and fanatical elements. Now is the time to drive the wedge harder to let the saner elements win. But in the process of accomplishing this, the US and its allies should avoid falling in the trap being attempted to be set by the disgraced, vanquished and self-seeking political opponents (and their lackeys) of Obama and the Democrats.
If the western world can play its cards properly, surely the Iranian society could be freed from the tyrannical and repressive elements of that country. Quite often a cool and methodical approach works better than shoot-from-the hip approach. The modern world is not the Wild West of 19th century United States – it is now an internet and satellite driven world of the mentally sharp and balanced!!
Saturday, June 20, 2009
ALBERTA VICTIM OF CANADA’S VOTE BANK POLITICS; AND, UNEMPLOYED SUFFERING DUE TO DELAYS IN EI DISPENSATION
Amidst all the recent brouhaha related to auto industry’s near closure situation in Ontario province, the plight of huge unemployed work force of Alberta has got submerged and forgotten. No doubt thousands of workers were axed by GM, Chrysler and Ford and potentially many more may have been affected indirectly, but the fact remains that Alberta also saw massive lay offs from Q4 2008 till Q2 2009 – it is still going on.
The precipitous fall of crude prices led to cancellation of many oil sands projects. Coupled with this, falling prices of natural gas caused big cut down in new wells to be drilled. This dealt a double whammy to the Albertans and resulted in job losses not seen in decades. As well, there have been thousands of bankruptcies in the province which was riding wave of prosperity until a year ago.
But the unfortunate part is that while auto sector workers have got all the attention from the Federal government in terms of bail out funds and other help, no body has bothered to look at the plight of the massive number of laid off workers of Alberta. A substantial portion of people were laid off from the engineering companies and these people have no other job options because there are hardly any oil and gas projects elsewhere in Canada.
The Federal government seems to be keener in looking after the Ontario workers because the number of Parliament ridings is far more in that province than Alberta. Obviously, the vote bank politics is prompting the government attitude rather than the compassion or humane side of things. The Alberta workers have been left to fend for themselves with very little government support coming forth.
To make matters worse, the EI support to the laid off workers has been very slow to come. There doesn’t seem adequate staff to cope with the deluge of EI applications in Alberta. EI support cheques should start arriving within couple of months of having got laid off, but reports suggest longer waiting period for the laid off workers.
People in the other part of the world may have a perception that in Canada things happen in a non-partisan, fair and equitable manner but in reality that seems to be more of hogwash, complete rubbish. Hypocrisy rules the roost in Ottawa it would appear, securing vote bases for future parliamentary elections seems to be more important than the predicament of the suffering folks of provinces which do not send MP’s in droves.
Shameless self-seeking schmuck politicians do not exist in the developing countries only, they are present in Canada too; the difference may be only in terms of façade or polish that is maintained in this North American country.
One wonders when the conditions would turn around in Alberta, and the thousands of hapless engineers, skilled workers, and other laid off work force would get employment and lead a reasonably un-stressful life. It seems only God can provide some succour to the suffering and the dejected. The question is: when would He decide to shower His Grace!
The precipitous fall of crude prices led to cancellation of many oil sands projects. Coupled with this, falling prices of natural gas caused big cut down in new wells to be drilled. This dealt a double whammy to the Albertans and resulted in job losses not seen in decades. As well, there have been thousands of bankruptcies in the province which was riding wave of prosperity until a year ago.
But the unfortunate part is that while auto sector workers have got all the attention from the Federal government in terms of bail out funds and other help, no body has bothered to look at the plight of the massive number of laid off workers of Alberta. A substantial portion of people were laid off from the engineering companies and these people have no other job options because there are hardly any oil and gas projects elsewhere in Canada.
The Federal government seems to be keener in looking after the Ontario workers because the number of Parliament ridings is far more in that province than Alberta. Obviously, the vote bank politics is prompting the government attitude rather than the compassion or humane side of things. The Alberta workers have been left to fend for themselves with very little government support coming forth.
To make matters worse, the EI support to the laid off workers has been very slow to come. There doesn’t seem adequate staff to cope with the deluge of EI applications in Alberta. EI support cheques should start arriving within couple of months of having got laid off, but reports suggest longer waiting period for the laid off workers.
People in the other part of the world may have a perception that in Canada things happen in a non-partisan, fair and equitable manner but in reality that seems to be more of hogwash, complete rubbish. Hypocrisy rules the roost in Ottawa it would appear, securing vote bases for future parliamentary elections seems to be more important than the predicament of the suffering folks of provinces which do not send MP’s in droves.
Shameless self-seeking schmuck politicians do not exist in the developing countries only, they are present in Canada too; the difference may be only in terms of façade or polish that is maintained in this North American country.
One wonders when the conditions would turn around in Alberta, and the thousands of hapless engineers, skilled workers, and other laid off work force would get employment and lead a reasonably un-stressful life. It seems only God can provide some succour to the suffering and the dejected. The question is: when would He decide to shower His Grace!
Sunday, May 3, 2009
PRESIDENT OBAMAS FIRST 100 DAYS; AND, DISTURBING SITUATION IN PAKISTAN
PRESIDENT OBAMA COMPLETES 100 DAYS
It had to be someone with massive fortitude, patience and commonsense to confront the issues that enveloped US and the world when the 44th president of US took office. Fortunately, for the world and the US, Barack Obama came to the White House in Jan 2009. He has so far done an outstanding job; if one had to give him a grade, he should be given an A.
President Obama has shown statesmanship, leadership and unifying qualities during first 100 days of his presidency - at both global and national levels. It is shocking to see that certain sections of American society, namely, the ultra-rightists, the conservatives have chosen to be guided by their disgustingly irrational dogma rather than their saner and normal mental faculties.
One wonders how a certain section of TV media in US – Fox News – can get away with the vitriol and divisiveness their media personalities seem to purvey on the channel. Moreover, these apparently mentally atrophied personalities seem to abet, preach and fuel the irrational and psychopathically motivated views alluded to above.
The above cited channel also did not cover the President Obama’s news conference marking completion of his first 100 days in office. Commonsense dictates that the presidential presser was important to the people of US because their President was supposed to be stating his views on various issues of paramount concern to American people.
However, somehow the American people put up quietly with such pathologically malefic behaviour – there is hardly any public outcry, shaming, condemnation, boycott of such systematic campaign which is dangerous for the country. Probably this partly explains the systemic rot that has set in the American society. Probably it also explains why certain white collared diabolical crooks seem to be getting emboldened to design uniquely effective swindling techniques and making fast buck with it.
One hopes President Obama will not get de-motivated by such psychopathic lunatics, and instead will continue to lead US and the world in the right direction. May God bless him and his family!
====================================================
PAKISTAN’S DANGEROUS SHENANIGANS
One of the issues that the US President is grappling with is the Afghan-Pak conundrum. Pakistan is right now in the midst of a mind-boggling game of one-upmanship being played between the mentally unstable but power hungry and corrupt Zardari and the Pakistan Army.
It is simply beyond commonsensical comprehension as to why only a small number of Pakistani troops have been sent to Buner area to deal with the Taleban even though Pakistan has a reasonably big army equipped with armaments obtained through begging, borrowing from US and China. Obviously, some very insidious game is being played.
Fortunately, for the first time the US administration is adopting the right way of dealing with Pakistanis. It is also very important that US keeps a close vigil on the nuclear assets of Pakistan and takes all steps necessary to ensure these weapons do not fall in to the hands of Taleban.
If necessary, US military may have to take control of the vital military installations which store the nuclear weapons. For this to be successful, back up support from Canadian, Indian (and possibly Israeli) forces would be essential; hopefully, necessary coordination has been carried out and proper actionable plan has been put in place.
US and its allies have to bring all the intelligence they can bring to the table to make sure they have figured out what games Pakistan’s ISI is playing and whether there are some other forces, like, China and Saudi Arabia acting from behind the scenes.
One also hopes that US has figured out a scenario in which Pakistan’s current geographical entity may have to be allowed to be fragmented in to at least two pieces. One autonomous strip consisting of the NWFP, the pro-Taleban regions, and the other consisting of Punjab, Sindh and Multan. In such a scenario, the strip consisting of NWFP, Swat, Dir etc can be systematically squeezed from north and bottom.
At any rate, Pak-Afghan scene needs close monitoring and quick action as and when needed. When and how much help Pakistan needs to be given should be decided by Obama administration based on verified ground realities instead of sentimental pronouncements emanating from some US congressperson – not least of someone as naïve and incompetent as John Kerry.
It had to be someone with massive fortitude, patience and commonsense to confront the issues that enveloped US and the world when the 44th president of US took office. Fortunately, for the world and the US, Barack Obama came to the White House in Jan 2009. He has so far done an outstanding job; if one had to give him a grade, he should be given an A.
President Obama has shown statesmanship, leadership and unifying qualities during first 100 days of his presidency - at both global and national levels. It is shocking to see that certain sections of American society, namely, the ultra-rightists, the conservatives have chosen to be guided by their disgustingly irrational dogma rather than their saner and normal mental faculties.
One wonders how a certain section of TV media in US – Fox News – can get away with the vitriol and divisiveness their media personalities seem to purvey on the channel. Moreover, these apparently mentally atrophied personalities seem to abet, preach and fuel the irrational and psychopathically motivated views alluded to above.
The above cited channel also did not cover the President Obama’s news conference marking completion of his first 100 days in office. Commonsense dictates that the presidential presser was important to the people of US because their President was supposed to be stating his views on various issues of paramount concern to American people.
However, somehow the American people put up quietly with such pathologically malefic behaviour – there is hardly any public outcry, shaming, condemnation, boycott of such systematic campaign which is dangerous for the country. Probably this partly explains the systemic rot that has set in the American society. Probably it also explains why certain white collared diabolical crooks seem to be getting emboldened to design uniquely effective swindling techniques and making fast buck with it.
One hopes President Obama will not get de-motivated by such psychopathic lunatics, and instead will continue to lead US and the world in the right direction. May God bless him and his family!
====================================================
PAKISTAN’S DANGEROUS SHENANIGANS
One of the issues that the US President is grappling with is the Afghan-Pak conundrum. Pakistan is right now in the midst of a mind-boggling game of one-upmanship being played between the mentally unstable but power hungry and corrupt Zardari and the Pakistan Army.
It is simply beyond commonsensical comprehension as to why only a small number of Pakistani troops have been sent to Buner area to deal with the Taleban even though Pakistan has a reasonably big army equipped with armaments obtained through begging, borrowing from US and China. Obviously, some very insidious game is being played.
Fortunately, for the first time the US administration is adopting the right way of dealing with Pakistanis. It is also very important that US keeps a close vigil on the nuclear assets of Pakistan and takes all steps necessary to ensure these weapons do not fall in to the hands of Taleban.
If necessary, US military may have to take control of the vital military installations which store the nuclear weapons. For this to be successful, back up support from Canadian, Indian (and possibly Israeli) forces would be essential; hopefully, necessary coordination has been carried out and proper actionable plan has been put in place.
US and its allies have to bring all the intelligence they can bring to the table to make sure they have figured out what games Pakistan’s ISI is playing and whether there are some other forces, like, China and Saudi Arabia acting from behind the scenes.
One also hopes that US has figured out a scenario in which Pakistan’s current geographical entity may have to be allowed to be fragmented in to at least two pieces. One autonomous strip consisting of the NWFP, the pro-Taleban regions, and the other consisting of Punjab, Sindh and Multan. In such a scenario, the strip consisting of NWFP, Swat, Dir etc can be systematically squeezed from north and bottom.
At any rate, Pak-Afghan scene needs close monitoring and quick action as and when needed. When and how much help Pakistan needs to be given should be decided by Obama administration based on verified ground realities instead of sentimental pronouncements emanating from some US congressperson – not least of someone as naïve and incompetent as John Kerry.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
CANADA AND INDIA NEED TO TAKE ON LEADING ROLE TO GUIDE THE G-20 TOWARDS A BETTER ECONOMIC FUTURE!!
G-20 Leaders gathering in London on 02 April represent 85% of the world's economy. At this meeting:
· The G-20 nations want to reach agreement on more co-ordinated action to revive the world economy, both through more interest rate cuts and more spending by governments to bring economies out of recession;
· Most of the G-20 countries will push for an action plan to prevent a future crisis by strengthening the international regulation of banks and other financial institutions;
· The Group also hopes to agree on a blueprint for future reform, including changes to the international organisations charged with regulating the world economy, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to give a greater clout to poorer countries.
USA is on board with interest rate cuts and more spending by governments, but it is not articulating its views very clearly on reform of international financial architecture. And, on regulation of financial institutions, the US, if anything, is reluctant to appear to be strong proponent of stricter regulatory measures. US’s view on this issue has been at best muffled and confusing.
A report from the G20 working group on regulation has been reportedly leaked to the financial website breakingviews.com. Key recommendations include the strengthening of capital requirements, greater transparency, and more International Monetary Fund (IMF) oversight of systemic risks. It is said that the recommendations closely follow proposed reform of the UK's regulation.
This is where the problem is: A country which has itself made a mess of its economic management is trying to propose changes. The country is question is America’s lackey – Britain. Britain’s banks are in pathetic condition, the top ones needed the government to dole them out of trouble. Britain’s housing mortgage almost mimicked the disastrous American model.
Despite all this the wily schmuck British are trying to pre-empt other countries by drafting some document and throwing it out there. The Brits, whose international stature these days depends on the crumbs thrown their way by their patrons in Washington, generally try to propose something that pleases their American masters.
In case of the current economic mess the countries that have the legitimate credentials to offer changes regarding economic world order, regulation of financial systems are essentially two – Canada and India. The reasons are almost obvious to anybody who is non-partisan, unprejudiced and has some idea of international financial system.
Among the G-7 countries Canada’s banking system is the least affected by current economic turmoil. The financial regulatory framework in Canada seems to have acquitted itself fairly well. The Bank of Canada is presiding over the overall Canadian financial institutions in a reasonably competent manner – its Governor Mike Carney taking necessary steps to provide CPR to the Canadian economy. He also seems to be clued to the stimulus measures being rolled out by the Harper government.
Among developing economies, India has the best credentials, from various standpoints, to offer a suitable blueprint on regulatory framework as well as new economic world order. First, India has the 5th highest GDP (based on PPP) in the world (after US, China, Japan & Germany). India’s central bank has been implementing and managing necessary regulatory framework for the financial institutions in India in a very successful and effective manner for years.
When Asia Pacific countries reeled under currency meltdown in the 90’s, India remained unscathed simply because India’s central bank already had in place effective tools and regulatory structure to prevent any such disaster. India’s economy is predicated on one of the most sensible models – an economy which is around 60% based on internal consumption and rest on export. The Indian economic honchos have displayed a far greater sense of foresight and understanding than their peers in US, Germany, Britain, Japan and other G-20 countries.
USA has no moral or ethical standing to pontificate about new economic world order (including IMF, World Bank) and/or regulatory framework for financial institutions. The current economic global crisis has been engendered by diabolical mutilation of ethical dealings unleashed by the shameless greedy SOB’s of American financial institutions.
These shameless rogues of the US financial system seem incorrigible – they have the audacity to thumb their noses to present administration. The American public and the President et al were dealt with a resounding slap when the AIG executives pocketed bonuses in the excess of $200 Million – and horror of horrors, this amount coming out of government alms! Who knows what stratagems the other US banks and financial institutions are planning to bilk away huge bonus packets for themselves?
Of the other G-7 nations, Germany also seems to be floundering. Therefore, it is also not in the best position to lead any initiative for the required change. China doesn’t make a good candidate for being a leader of change because China’s regulatory framework is not backed by the checks and balances that a democratic country like India has. Brazil is still learning the ropes, and so are the other developing countries of the G-20 club.
In recent G-20 conclaves USA has been urging focus mainly on stimulus, and kind of downplaying need for expeditious action on changes in economic world order and regulation. It is a sad commentary of American intellectual level. A country which boasts of a string of Nobel Laureates in Economics is right now struggling to stay afloat and get back on track!
American budget deficits are turning cavernous by the week; Treasury Secretary Geithner is under pressure. He received implicit support though from his President in March but it will not be easy for him to grapple and subdue the gargantuan economic mess that engulfs the US. Moreover, the highly partisan skulduggery at the Capitol Hill tends to significantly weaken any policy initiative emanating from the White House.
So, in summary the G-20 meeting in April will be best served if Canada and India are given more leeway and opportunity to shape the economic framework of the future. If the US is allowed by the G-18 to ride roughshod over the sensible policy directions, and if their lackeys – the bootlicking schmuck Brits – get a freehand in drafting the policy directions, then God bless the world!
It is time the 18 countries of the G-20 club told the US and its poodle (Britain) to move over to the sidelines and let the more knowledgeable practitioners to fashion the economic future of the world. However, the US and Britain may offer meaningful suggestions, if they can. But if they resorted to dog-in-the-manger policy it will do no good to the current crisis, and it is the US which stands to lose maximum if the world economy goes in a deeper hole rather than come out it. President Obama and Gordon Brown would do well to lend their ears more rather than their tongues!
· The G-20 nations want to reach agreement on more co-ordinated action to revive the world economy, both through more interest rate cuts and more spending by governments to bring economies out of recession;
· Most of the G-20 countries will push for an action plan to prevent a future crisis by strengthening the international regulation of banks and other financial institutions;
· The Group also hopes to agree on a blueprint for future reform, including changes to the international organisations charged with regulating the world economy, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to give a greater clout to poorer countries.
USA is on board with interest rate cuts and more spending by governments, but it is not articulating its views very clearly on reform of international financial architecture. And, on regulation of financial institutions, the US, if anything, is reluctant to appear to be strong proponent of stricter regulatory measures. US’s view on this issue has been at best muffled and confusing.
A report from the G20 working group on regulation has been reportedly leaked to the financial website breakingviews.com. Key recommendations include the strengthening of capital requirements, greater transparency, and more International Monetary Fund (IMF) oversight of systemic risks. It is said that the recommendations closely follow proposed reform of the UK's regulation.
This is where the problem is: A country which has itself made a mess of its economic management is trying to propose changes. The country is question is America’s lackey – Britain. Britain’s banks are in pathetic condition, the top ones needed the government to dole them out of trouble. Britain’s housing mortgage almost mimicked the disastrous American model.
Despite all this the wily schmuck British are trying to pre-empt other countries by drafting some document and throwing it out there. The Brits, whose international stature these days depends on the crumbs thrown their way by their patrons in Washington, generally try to propose something that pleases their American masters.
In case of the current economic mess the countries that have the legitimate credentials to offer changes regarding economic world order, regulation of financial systems are essentially two – Canada and India. The reasons are almost obvious to anybody who is non-partisan, unprejudiced and has some idea of international financial system.
Among the G-7 countries Canada’s banking system is the least affected by current economic turmoil. The financial regulatory framework in Canada seems to have acquitted itself fairly well. The Bank of Canada is presiding over the overall Canadian financial institutions in a reasonably competent manner – its Governor Mike Carney taking necessary steps to provide CPR to the Canadian economy. He also seems to be clued to the stimulus measures being rolled out by the Harper government.
Among developing economies, India has the best credentials, from various standpoints, to offer a suitable blueprint on regulatory framework as well as new economic world order. First, India has the 5th highest GDP (based on PPP) in the world (after US, China, Japan & Germany). India’s central bank has been implementing and managing necessary regulatory framework for the financial institutions in India in a very successful and effective manner for years.
When Asia Pacific countries reeled under currency meltdown in the 90’s, India remained unscathed simply because India’s central bank already had in place effective tools and regulatory structure to prevent any such disaster. India’s economy is predicated on one of the most sensible models – an economy which is around 60% based on internal consumption and rest on export. The Indian economic honchos have displayed a far greater sense of foresight and understanding than their peers in US, Germany, Britain, Japan and other G-20 countries.
USA has no moral or ethical standing to pontificate about new economic world order (including IMF, World Bank) and/or regulatory framework for financial institutions. The current economic global crisis has been engendered by diabolical mutilation of ethical dealings unleashed by the shameless greedy SOB’s of American financial institutions.
These shameless rogues of the US financial system seem incorrigible – they have the audacity to thumb their noses to present administration. The American public and the President et al were dealt with a resounding slap when the AIG executives pocketed bonuses in the excess of $200 Million – and horror of horrors, this amount coming out of government alms! Who knows what stratagems the other US banks and financial institutions are planning to bilk away huge bonus packets for themselves?
Of the other G-7 nations, Germany also seems to be floundering. Therefore, it is also not in the best position to lead any initiative for the required change. China doesn’t make a good candidate for being a leader of change because China’s regulatory framework is not backed by the checks and balances that a democratic country like India has. Brazil is still learning the ropes, and so are the other developing countries of the G-20 club.
In recent G-20 conclaves USA has been urging focus mainly on stimulus, and kind of downplaying need for expeditious action on changes in economic world order and regulation. It is a sad commentary of American intellectual level. A country which boasts of a string of Nobel Laureates in Economics is right now struggling to stay afloat and get back on track!
American budget deficits are turning cavernous by the week; Treasury Secretary Geithner is under pressure. He received implicit support though from his President in March but it will not be easy for him to grapple and subdue the gargantuan economic mess that engulfs the US. Moreover, the highly partisan skulduggery at the Capitol Hill tends to significantly weaken any policy initiative emanating from the White House.
So, in summary the G-20 meeting in April will be best served if Canada and India are given more leeway and opportunity to shape the economic framework of the future. If the US is allowed by the G-18 to ride roughshod over the sensible policy directions, and if their lackeys – the bootlicking schmuck Brits – get a freehand in drafting the policy directions, then God bless the world!
It is time the 18 countries of the G-20 club told the US and its poodle (Britain) to move over to the sidelines and let the more knowledgeable practitioners to fashion the economic future of the world. However, the US and Britain may offer meaningful suggestions, if they can. But if they resorted to dog-in-the-manger policy it will do no good to the current crisis, and it is the US which stands to lose maximum if the world economy goes in a deeper hole rather than come out it. President Obama and Gordon Brown would do well to lend their ears more rather than their tongues!
Saturday, March 14, 2009
PRESIDENT OBAMA’S AFGHANISTAN POLICY AND THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT - ISI
In his first primetime press conference on 09 Feb when US President Obama didn’t mention the word ‘Taliban’ while responding to a question on his administration’s Afghanistan policy, it was clear something was cooking. The omission of the word ‘Taliban’ came as a bit of a surprise because till this presser whenever President Obama spoke about threats to US from Afghan-Pakistan area, he always mentioned Al-Qaeda and Taliban in the same breath.
Be that as it may, it is now clear that US does not wish to look at Taliban through one coloured lens – US wishes to distinguish between ‘good’ Taliban and ‘bad’ Taliban. Ostensibly, the motivation for this thinking comes from supposed success in Iraq where some Sunni elements hostile towards US apparently switched sides and started working with the coalition forces in fighting insurgency.
Clearly, US is trying to devise a strategy for Afghanistan which will prevent it from getting bogged down in that area in Vietnam-like manner. Hopefully, lessons learned from Vietnam are apparently being applied to make sure that US doesn’t have to leave Afghan theatre with a bloody nose, mutilated prestige and negative gain on the ledger.
Extending the logic of success in Iraq to Afghanistan is conceptually tenable. But what about translating that in to reality? Are the scenarios identical? What are the additional challenges? Surely, US strategists must have carried out necessary SWOT and other analyses – one hopes they did so! Incidentally, one had hoped that US had done necessary home work about post-Saddam scenario in Iraq also but sadly that proved to be so hopelessly untrue!
Anyway, it seems that US thinks that Taliban being a Sunni outfit will be amenable more or less in the same way as the Iraqi Sunni elements turned out to be. As well, the American policy makers are hoping that there will be support from Pakistan in making the new policy initiative successful. It seems that Afghan President Hamid Karzai is also in favour of this vector of new US Afghan policy.
But here is the fly in the ointment – Pakistan – and this could be potentially serious. Why? Because, Pakistan (through ISI) was a co-sponsor of Taliban when Soviets had occupied Afghanistan. But after the Soviets withdrew from that region, Pakistan (through ISI) continued to keep Taliban alive because it served them in more than one way.
By keeping Taliban alive and active, Pakistan’s dangerously shrewd and mean SOB's in politics and in ISI could continue to have foothold in Afghanistan, devilishly prise out American aid, keep fingering India, and last but not the least hold on to their positions of power.
Just to provide brief historical context, Pakistan’s former dictators Zial-ul-Haq and Pervez Musharraf were America’s darlings because they were so good in licking the boots of their American masters and also convincing them that US interests in the region are safe with them (Zia or Musharraf). Taliban was a good pawn in this political chess game Pakistan played for last so many years vis-à-vis US.
Washington probably understood how the mean schmuck Pakistanis (including ISI) were pulling wool over US eyes but the Americans chose to ignore (if they didn’t understand the Pakistani game, then God bless them!). Anyway, after 9/11 things changed, albeit very slowly, in Washington. During his second term President Bush started realising there was more benefit in cooperating with India (e.g. civil nuclear cooperation).
In order to win India’s confidence US started to acknowledge, more in private though, the dangers posed by ISI's support to Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Slowly, US started to acknowledge in public also the areas where Musharraf had to do more with regard to Pakistan's support to Taliban and Islamic insurgents than his usual theatricals.
But the 26/11 Mumbai attack completely changed everything. This attack reinforced the fact that Pakistan was indeed the epicentre of Islamic terrorism, and was playing double game with US with regard to Taliban and even Al-Qaeda. The reported killing of American intelligence operatives, and the Jews in the Mumbai attack forced the Americans to take serious note of Pakistan’s dubious role in the whole game.
Consequently, the Americans are infuriated, rightly so, and they want to get down to the bottom of the sinister plot. So are the Israelis, and given their unfettered clout in Washington they are kicking their American counterparts to punish the perpetrators. Both US and Israelis know the diabolical role of ISI in all this.
US probably is aware that Pakistan hates President Karzai and Pakistan will do everything possible to destabilise him. Taliban is one of the instruments Pakistan uses to play its dirty game against Karzai and anybody and everybody who support Karzai – including the American troops and ISAF. Pakistan plays this sinister game through ISI. No wonder American troops and ISAF are finding their task in containing Taliban getting difficult by the day.
Ultimately, Americans are now realising that it is about time they wielded the hobnailed boot with Pakistan and some how brought a stop to ISI’s support to Taliban. US knows (so does Canada and other constituents of ISAF) that unless ISI is disciplined and Pakistan stops providing safe haven to Taliban and Al-Qaeda elements in FAR and NWFP, chances of gaining any upper hand against the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is next to impossible.
US Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, eventually couldn’t be more candid about ISI. In an interview with PBS broadcast recently he said that (Pakistan Army Chief and de-facto boss of ISI) Kayani "certainly is aware of the concerns that I have with respect to his intelligence agency, ISI".
"They (ISI) have been very attached to many of these extremist organizations," Mullen said warning that "in the long run, they have got to completely cut ties with those in order to really move in the right direction". Kayani, he said, had appointed in Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha, "one of his best guys", as the new director of ISI. "I'm encouraged with his views and I'm encouraged with how he sees the problem." But "it's going to take some time to get at it inside ISI".
So, in summary, the new US Afghan policy of engaging with ‘good’ Taliban may not bear any fruit whatsoever unless and until the chief actor of the dangerous Islamic insurgency game – Pakistan and ISI – is properly corralled and contained. US should learn from history (their strategists have a bad habit of not reading history) that elements in modern day Pakistan and the Afghan-Pak border areas could be contained only through sledge hammer policy (refer to early 20th century Sikh ruler Maharaja Ranjit Singh and his general Hari Singh Nalwa’s tactics in the region).
One hopes President Obama and his advisors will learn from history and move forward carefully with force (and some carrots) without getting fooled by Pakistani chicanery. Only if they can do so, they will be able to minimise losses to American troops and ISAF and at the same time achieve their objective of containing Islamic insurgency threat to USA and other western countries. And while doing so for God’s sake US should not get blindsided and/or misguided by agenda-driven advice from the wily British. USA has for so long been deceived and misguided by British advice on South Asian matters. It is time US used its own brain while developing strategies for the Afghan-Pakistan theatre.
Be that as it may, it is now clear that US does not wish to look at Taliban through one coloured lens – US wishes to distinguish between ‘good’ Taliban and ‘bad’ Taliban. Ostensibly, the motivation for this thinking comes from supposed success in Iraq where some Sunni elements hostile towards US apparently switched sides and started working with the coalition forces in fighting insurgency.
Clearly, US is trying to devise a strategy for Afghanistan which will prevent it from getting bogged down in that area in Vietnam-like manner. Hopefully, lessons learned from Vietnam are apparently being applied to make sure that US doesn’t have to leave Afghan theatre with a bloody nose, mutilated prestige and negative gain on the ledger.
Extending the logic of success in Iraq to Afghanistan is conceptually tenable. But what about translating that in to reality? Are the scenarios identical? What are the additional challenges? Surely, US strategists must have carried out necessary SWOT and other analyses – one hopes they did so! Incidentally, one had hoped that US had done necessary home work about post-Saddam scenario in Iraq also but sadly that proved to be so hopelessly untrue!
Anyway, it seems that US thinks that Taliban being a Sunni outfit will be amenable more or less in the same way as the Iraqi Sunni elements turned out to be. As well, the American policy makers are hoping that there will be support from Pakistan in making the new policy initiative successful. It seems that Afghan President Hamid Karzai is also in favour of this vector of new US Afghan policy.
But here is the fly in the ointment – Pakistan – and this could be potentially serious. Why? Because, Pakistan (through ISI) was a co-sponsor of Taliban when Soviets had occupied Afghanistan. But after the Soviets withdrew from that region, Pakistan (through ISI) continued to keep Taliban alive because it served them in more than one way.
By keeping Taliban alive and active, Pakistan’s dangerously shrewd and mean SOB's in politics and in ISI could continue to have foothold in Afghanistan, devilishly prise out American aid, keep fingering India, and last but not the least hold on to their positions of power.
Just to provide brief historical context, Pakistan’s former dictators Zial-ul-Haq and Pervez Musharraf were America’s darlings because they were so good in licking the boots of their American masters and also convincing them that US interests in the region are safe with them (Zia or Musharraf). Taliban was a good pawn in this political chess game Pakistan played for last so many years vis-à-vis US.
Washington probably understood how the mean schmuck Pakistanis (including ISI) were pulling wool over US eyes but the Americans chose to ignore (if they didn’t understand the Pakistani game, then God bless them!). Anyway, after 9/11 things changed, albeit very slowly, in Washington. During his second term President Bush started realising there was more benefit in cooperating with India (e.g. civil nuclear cooperation).
In order to win India’s confidence US started to acknowledge, more in private though, the dangers posed by ISI's support to Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Slowly, US started to acknowledge in public also the areas where Musharraf had to do more with regard to Pakistan's support to Taliban and Islamic insurgents than his usual theatricals.
But the 26/11 Mumbai attack completely changed everything. This attack reinforced the fact that Pakistan was indeed the epicentre of Islamic terrorism, and was playing double game with US with regard to Taliban and even Al-Qaeda. The reported killing of American intelligence operatives, and the Jews in the Mumbai attack forced the Americans to take serious note of Pakistan’s dubious role in the whole game.
Consequently, the Americans are infuriated, rightly so, and they want to get down to the bottom of the sinister plot. So are the Israelis, and given their unfettered clout in Washington they are kicking their American counterparts to punish the perpetrators. Both US and Israelis know the diabolical role of ISI in all this.
US probably is aware that Pakistan hates President Karzai and Pakistan will do everything possible to destabilise him. Taliban is one of the instruments Pakistan uses to play its dirty game against Karzai and anybody and everybody who support Karzai – including the American troops and ISAF. Pakistan plays this sinister game through ISI. No wonder American troops and ISAF are finding their task in containing Taliban getting difficult by the day.
Ultimately, Americans are now realising that it is about time they wielded the hobnailed boot with Pakistan and some how brought a stop to ISI’s support to Taliban. US knows (so does Canada and other constituents of ISAF) that unless ISI is disciplined and Pakistan stops providing safe haven to Taliban and Al-Qaeda elements in FAR and NWFP, chances of gaining any upper hand against the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is next to impossible.
US Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, eventually couldn’t be more candid about ISI. In an interview with PBS broadcast recently he said that (Pakistan Army Chief and de-facto boss of ISI) Kayani "certainly is aware of the concerns that I have with respect to his intelligence agency, ISI".
"They (ISI) have been very attached to many of these extremist organizations," Mullen said warning that "in the long run, they have got to completely cut ties with those in order to really move in the right direction". Kayani, he said, had appointed in Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha, "one of his best guys", as the new director of ISI. "I'm encouraged with his views and I'm encouraged with how he sees the problem." But "it's going to take some time to get at it inside ISI".
So, in summary, the new US Afghan policy of engaging with ‘good’ Taliban may not bear any fruit whatsoever unless and until the chief actor of the dangerous Islamic insurgency game – Pakistan and ISI – is properly corralled and contained. US should learn from history (their strategists have a bad habit of not reading history) that elements in modern day Pakistan and the Afghan-Pak border areas could be contained only through sledge hammer policy (refer to early 20th century Sikh ruler Maharaja Ranjit Singh and his general Hari Singh Nalwa’s tactics in the region).
One hopes President Obama and his advisors will learn from history and move forward carefully with force (and some carrots) without getting fooled by Pakistani chicanery. Only if they can do so, they will be able to minimise losses to American troops and ISAF and at the same time achieve their objective of containing Islamic insurgency threat to USA and other western countries. And while doing so for God’s sake US should not get blindsided and/or misguided by agenda-driven advice from the wily British. USA has for so long been deceived and misguided by British advice on South Asian matters. It is time US used its own brain while developing strategies for the Afghan-Pakistan theatre.
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