Let’s start with
President Obama’s list of predicaments regarding international issues that is
enabling his political detractors to portray him as a wimp:
De-nuclearization
of Iran: United States is trying its best to avoid any option of use of
force. Reason:
With 17 trillion dollar deficit, US is virtually
broke. It simply does not have money to spend on any military excursion – even the
minor ones will add to the back breaking penury of US. Moreover, there
is tremendous aversion in the American public toward another direct
involvement. Furthermore, in case of Iran, any
military option, which should be perhaps be a recourse of last resort, to be effective
would need to be at a scale which would be prohibitively expensive for America
and too heavy for war-weary American people’s will.
As a result, US is trying to tough talk its way to some
face saving outcome with Iran. But, unfortunately, Iran apparently knows the
monetary constraints of US to engage in any military action and would take advantage
of the same anticipating correctly the trajectory of American diplomatic maneuverings
of Kerry and the like.
However, a lot of American
politicians from both sides of the isle are apprehensive of and uncomfortable
with the approach US is adopting and do not seem to be very optimistic about a meaningful
outcome. The Democrat
front-runner of 2016 presidential election Hillary Clinton has said (as
reported by NBC News website) “The odds of reaching that comprehensive
agreement are not good,” Clinton said, per the Washington Post. “I am also personally skeptical that the
Iranians would follow through and deliver. I have seen their behavior over the
years…”.
Syrian crisis:
US policy on Syria has been predicated on being hesitant
to get directly involved, again, due to virtual financial bankruptcy of the US
economy and war weariness of the American people. President Obama said
Syria had “red line” when Assad regime used chemical weapons against the
rebels. The world thought US would take some punitive actions through air
strikes but at the last moment Obama went to the Congress to seek authorization
for such an action which was turned down (by the Congress) as expected. There
was huge disappointment with the ‘hawkish’ elements, like, Republican Senator
John McCain and others. Obama looked timid, dithering and mousy.
The Assad regime seems to be reclaiming territories lost
to the rebels. However, it is said that Obama administration’s
reluctance toward any deeper involvement stems from presence of Muslim
extremist elements fighting against Assad’s forces. It seems Obama
administrations would prefer less extremist minded Assad prevail rather than Al-Qaida
or Taliban type forces to win – this may not be a bad idea but unfortunately,
for Obama, his detractors do not want to see that way.
Ukraine crisis:
Russians have annexed Crimea and are now seem to be consolidating their
position in the newly acquired region. The US and the European allies have
imposed sanctions and articulated lot of tough sounding verbiage. However, all
this does not seem to have caused any perceptible impact on Putin and his
coterie. Obama detractors in the US are, again, criticizing him imputing Putin’s
actions to his alleged ‘weak’ stance at the international stage.
It must be said that there was
simply nothing that US or the Europeans could do in Crimea because of proximity
between Russia and Crimea, and logistical challenges for the western powers to
undertake any preventive action militarily. The only thing that may, however, be pointed out is that West was
probably too lost in the euphoria and celebration of having caused the
pro-Russian President of Ukraine and his cronies to flee, and failed to anticipate
Russian reaction to it. The West remained oblivious of Russia’s sensitivities
to developments in Ukraine which Russia considers as their backyard and also
the century old historical linkages between the two.
US troops
presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014: President Obama has yet to make a
decision on the size of a post-2014 US force in Afghanistan after a 13-year war
that has become highly unpopular among the American public. Outgoing President Karzai
surprised the international community and many Afghans in December 2013 when he
ignored the recommendation of an assembly of tribal leaders and other
dignitaries to sign it, saying he would leave the final decision to his
successor after 5 April elections.
A bipartisan delegation of US Senators to Afghanistan called
on President Barack Obama this week to announce a decision on his plans for
future troop levels in the country, on the assumption a much-delayed security
pact eventually will eventually be signed with Kabul. One of the delegation
members, Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, a Republican, said Obama should
not wait for that to give an idea of what the US presence would look like after
the Nato-led combat mission ends at the end of this year. This issue is
confounding Obama and his reticence on the subject is providing ammunition to
his opponents to criticize him for his indecisiveness.
Then there are some other issues that is causing headache to
Obama:
Strains in
relations with Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is not very
happy with the American policy trajectory on Iran and pressure on Israel to
make some hard choices before 29th April toward resolution of
Israel-Palestine imbroglio.
Since the global powers reached an interim agreement with
Iran last November, Netanyahu’s warnings about Iran have been largely ignored. A frustrated Israeli leadership now appears
to be ratcheting up the pressure on the international community to take a tough
position in its negotiations with Iran. A front-page headline in the daily
Haaretz this week reported that Netanyahu has ordered “to prep for strike on
Iran in 2014” and has allocated US$2.87 billion for the groundwork. Earlier
this week, Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon hinted that Israel would have to
pursue a military strike on its own, with the U.S. having chosen the path of
negotiations.
Whether Israel would translate its rhetoric in action remains
to be seen and seems improbable, nevertheless the above mentioned developments
were meant to jolt the global powers as a wake-up call.
Drop in approval
ratings: Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in March shows President
Obama's job approval moved down to 41% in March from 43% in January, marking a
new low. Some 54% disapproved of the job he is doing, matching a previous high
from December, when the botched roll-out of his signature health law played
prominently in the news. The latest survey also showed the lowest-ever approval
in Journal/NBC polling for Mr. Obama's handling of foreign policy.
Democrats’
worry about losing Senate in November elections: As per NBC News, prominent figures still associated with
President Obama and his White House team are sounding the alarm bell that the
Democratic Party could lose the Senate -- if not more -- in November. Former White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said that
the Democrats’ control of the Senate was “definitely” in danger.
NBC News also
reports that due to falling approval rating of Obama some vulnerable Democrats
are already shunning Obama’s assistance. The president reportedly acknowledged
his lackluster approval ratings during his meeting with Senate Democrats at a
retreat recently.
The Democrat candidates Mark
Begich in Alaska, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, and Kay
Hagan in North Carolina are especially keen on distancing themselves from Obama
because of his overt opposition to Keystone XL pipeline project. The
above mentioned four senators joined the Canadian Ambassador to US, labor union
leaders and others in February this year to express support for this project.
Obama has stated that he would give his decision by end of April. If he rejects this project, these four senators’
political future and Democrats’ hopes of retaining majority in Senate would be almost
surely be compromised.
‘Weight’ of
Nobel Peace Prize: President Obama seems to be
continually weighed down by Nobel Peace Prize conferred on him – he seems to be
struggling with himself on every issue that involves potential of military
option; he seems to feel hand cuffed and suffer from dissonance within himself
due to this prize (and unsaid expectation that came with it). As well, Obama seems to be very worried about the legacy he would
leave behind and how history would judge him on various issues – be it US
interventionism, or stand on environment, or bipartisanship at Capitol Hill and
so on.
So, what might Obama do now? It is quite clear that President Obama needs to do
something different to shake off the following perception:
·
Professorial, less
of a man in command at helm
·
Speaks too much (from
scripted speeches)
·
More words, less of
actual action (esp. regarding international matters)
·
Afraid of
re-calibrating his stance on issues (which explains his being fearful of
environmental lobby)
·
Paralysis by over
analysis
·
Unreliable, shifty, dithering,
indecisive
·
Worried about legacy
and Nobel Peace Prize expectation
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