WITH CRIMEA ALREADY DE-FACTO OCCUPIED BY RUSSIA, WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS FOR WESTERN WORLD?

Not sure whether it is living in denial or utter stupidity, the Western media (TV channels) is still NOT characterizing the situation of Crimea as of Saturday 01 March as de-facto occupation by the Russian forces - the situation is being described as “so many thousands of Russian military personnel are reported to be present in that peninsular region of Ukraine”. Anyway, the fact of the matter is that, for all intents and purposes, Crimea is now under de-facto occupation of the Russian forces.

One reason for being in state of denial could be that if the Western media reports that Crimea is under de-facto occupation of the Russian forces, it would in the same breath convey admission of failure of western world to protect that region. It would be embarrassing, obviously.

Be that as it may, the question is: What can the western world do? It is to be kept in mind that Russian President Putin has obtained backing of the upper house of his Parliament to use force in Ukraine (not just in Crimea) to ‘protect Russian people in that country’, so, any use of force has been validated by the Russians never mind that the such a permission may not have admissibility in the eyes of international law.

Why Crimea is important for Russia?

·       This region provides only warm water port to the Russians. Mind you, for centuries Russians have felt handicapped by unavailability of warm water ports. The Russians were very clever in having an agreement with Ukraine allowing them to station a naval fleet in Crimea; Russia keeps a major naval base in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, where its Black Sea Fleet is based. Apparently, Russia's lease on the Sevastopol base lasts until 2040’s.

·       Also keep in mind, the majority of the Black Sea coastline is held by NATO allies except for Georgia on the east, which is actively seeking NATO membership, and Ukraine in the north. Therefore, without a naval base in Crimea Russia is severely crippled as a global military power.

·       The Russians have a historical wound too in regard to Crimea. Many will have heard of Crimean War of 1853-1856 – the war was a result of rival imperial ambitions, when Britain and France, suspicious of Russian ambitions in the Balkans as the Ottoman Empire declined, sent troops to Crimea to peg them back. Russia had lost; they have not forgotten that humiliation.

How the de-facto occupation of Crimea helps Putin?

·       It gives him a reason to be part of any negotiations that Ukraine might have to undertake to resolve the current crisis.

·       The de-facto occupation of Crimea would potentially embolden the pro-Russia population in the Eastern regions of Ukraine, namely, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaphorizia, Odessa and to some extent, Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv to rally and consolidate. This would also help Putin in having a stronger hand and leverage at the negotiating table.

·       The above-mentioned regions and Crimea may have to be given more autonomy in any eventual negotiated settlement which will work in Russia’s favour. Furthermore, the above mentioned regions would provide counterbalance to pro-western regions of Ukraine.

·       Russia would also like to have some guarantee for the safety and security of the gas lines passing through Ukraine to Europe. Having a strong indirect foothold in Ukraine would potentially provide Russians that assurance. These pipelines are a source of revenue for Russia as well as they are a lever for keeping pressure on the end user countries too, albeit, in a limited manner (remember, Russia had threatened to turn off the gas supply to some countries few years back due to gas price disagreement).

Options of western countries:

The western countries do not seem to have any effective short-term leverage against the Russians. The Security Council meeting on 1^st March practically yielded nothing. It does not seem it would be possible to get any stronger sanction like clearance from the UN Security Council because of veto power of Russia.

Some symbolical actions were taken by western countries, e.g., Canada recalled its ambassador from Moscow on 1^st March and suspended its engagement in preparations for the G8 Summit. President Obama spoke for 90 minutes with Putin wherein apparently he made clear that Russia's continued violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would negatively impact Russia's standing in the international community

But the above are generally jejune demonstration that the western countries are doing something.

However, some long term measures may be viable:

·       Economic/Trade sanctions: This would require cooperation amongst western economic powers and the international institutions, like, IMF.

·       If alternative supplies of gas could be arranged for the European consumers, in that case the gas supply from Russia can be refused permission by Ukraine. This would hurt the Russians surely. However, this would take time.

·       Western powers can engender a military buildup in Putin’s backyard.  NATO membership for Georgia, with the advanced weapon systems and training it will bring, will contribute toward degrading Russian national security. The port of Batumi could also serve as an important military asset for the western powers.

Opportunity for Canada:

The Ukraine crisis is the best time for Canada to make a case to the end user European countries (of Russian gas supply) to import LNG from Canada and move away from Russian dependency. If the Europeans agree to this alternative, which would take 6-7 years to put in place, would give additional/alternative market for Canadian LNG (aside from potential Asian customers). Of course, for this to happen, British Columbia and the Federal agencies would need to hasten the process of approvals and policies in place so that the investing companies can make final investment decisions within 2014.  

Summary:

The Ukraine crisis looks like going to be a long drawn chess game between the Russians and the western bloc. There is a potential that Ukraine may exist as a divided country in the coming years. The western powers would have to work in concert and chalk out long term social, economic, and military strategy to checkmate the Russians. Unfortunately, Ukraine would be a pawn in this geo-political chess game.

The intelligence apparatus of the western countries seem to have been caught napping at the present time, however, they will have to pull their socks up for the long haul. It would not be easy to outflank, outwit the Russians, but if the western countries cooperate and play their cards well, they would be able to gain upper hand eventually. Patience and some guts would definitely be needed on the part of the western bloc in all this.