PREDICTIONS FOR 2014 FOR NORTH AMERICA – ECONOMIC (AND SOME POLITICAL)

UNITED STATES

Republican and Democrat tussle on budget, Obamacare and overall deficit will negatively impact the economic growth US could potentially have in 2014.

Attempts to scale back Quantitative Easing will meet some setbacks.

US may have to make some tough choices in regard to getting militarily involved (covertly and/or overtly) in certain countries resulting in strain on the economy.

In order to improve economic situation, US will have to find ways to reduce imports and enhance exports. Oil is one area where imports could be further reduced by increasing domestic production.

US would heighten its efforts to find ways to increase exports of real goods, and services: New materials (using new technology), new products (military hardware, products that can find use in industrial and domestic sectors), virtual products etc. besides the traditional exports items. New efficiencies would need to be found in services industry and export opportunities would need to be identified.

2014 congressional elections are likely to throw some unexpected results for both parties. The results would further confuse the incumbent president as to which path he should tread on – should he stick to policies that may leave behind some sort of legacy or make some radical shift in policies that have greater chances of helping the party in 2016 elections.

The front runner democrat presidential candidate would be publicly at loggerheads with the incumbent president on various policy issues.

There would be more challenges to US domination in international political arena. Confused signals from US would weaken its position on number of issues.  The incumbent president may be impelled to make some abrupt shifts in US stances which could make the situation further complicated vis-à-vis its allies and opponents alike.

CANADA

Economy would struggle to keep up a growth rate of greater than 2.0%. Commodities sector would struggle, so would the manufacturing sector.

Lack of unity amongst the political parties regarding development of oil and gas resources might hurt Canada’s short and long term prospects.

Slow progress on LNG, oil pipelines policy decisions by government as well as the companies would further complicate economic outlook. Competition from Mexico and US would pose newer challenges for Canadian policy makers and corporate bigwigs.

Canada may have to think in terms of resorting to some form of quantitative easing to prevent build-up of deflationary tendencies.

Canada would need to significantly enhance its exports by finding new avenues as well as more and diverse products.

The ruling party at the federal level would adopt some populist measures to improve its chances at the 2015 hustings.  The leadership would try to appear more decisive and focused – some efforts though would cause confusion and some backlash.